Tuesday, January 3, 2017

2016



2016 looked like this:
 

My trailing four year pre-tax return is 32.6% which I suppose means that the market owes me two or so years of back pay. Future Bright and Flybe account for most of these payables and I'll no doubt have to wait until such time as their results become machine readable. 

In the meantime, I have acquired shares in Rentech and LSB Industries to underpin the 2016-2018 investment cycle. Over the next few days I will sketch out these two ideas and also update the Flybe idea.

Happy New Year 

75 comments:

  1. Happy new year. And be the year a profitable one for you.

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  2. Happy new year. As always, thanks for the blog.

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  3. Happy new year, Thanks so much for the blog.
    Keep up the good work !!

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  4. Hi there Red, was Avesco not in your portfolio during the course of 2016? They had a VERY good month in December. Thanks for the blog, happy new year.

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    1. I owned it for two or three months in 2014 and wasn't clever enough to hold on to it.

      Thanks for reading, gents. Happy New Year

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  5. Love this blog - thanks so much and happy new year!

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  6. Happy New Year! May your future in 2017 be bright!
    Looking forward to your updated thoughts on LSB and Rentech.

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  7. Hi Red! Why did you choose Zargon's debentures over the common? Now that Zar is covenant free, bank debt free, with enough cash to repay $19m of the Debentures, downside looks limited and I would think the common has more upside than the debentures? Especially if a takeover is a short term possibility at this valuation level?

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  8. Well I'm mostly in the debentures as an income-earning long-crude hedge rather than as an investment in its own right.

    I think the debentures are money good and also work better than the common if WTI is less than $52 WTI or over $60 over the next couple of yeara.

    I think I'll see how the vote goes and what Trump brings before I think more seriously about the common. (TBF junior E&Ps are not really my thing so it'll take some doing before I commit to the equity).

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    1. This makes a lot of sense, thanks Red, and yes, junior E&Ps are indeed a game of their own!
      Otherwise, did you have a look at GAIA US? When I studied this "Netflix of Yoga and conspiracy vids" play, I thought to myself, this is a quintessential "quinzedix" candidate: Tangible book value margin of safety (cash, real estate, inventory, subscribers), great underlying business economics (high ROCE and negative working capital) and strong willed owner operator with stellar track record, and levers/metrics that you can model pretty well with a bit of research. You get ultra high growth for close to nothing, a rarity in the US tech world. 3 bagger potential if management guidance is not off. Really, I think it is your turf...

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    2. You're quite right - this is worth looking at. Thanks for mentioning it to me

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    3. I've posted some basic models of the business at posts 41 and 96 of the CoBF thread. They haven't prompted much discussion or alternatives models, so I'd be interested in your thoughts on the economics of the business.

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    4. Nice, thanks. Read through the thread and some of the primary material.

      My first impressions of the "high" case =
      https://www.dropbox.com/s/smwcf36cf34v2h9/Gaia.%20basic.png?dl=0

      I've stripped out Yoga -- I don't believe in it as a defensible vertical - and have instead accounted for it via library at cost.

      For Seeking Truth I think CAC goes up and LTV goes down as subscriptions grow.

      Current price looks ok if one thinks 300K ST subscibers is a cinch and if one assumes also that the 3 year stickiness for ST subs holds up. It's all new, of course, so only time will tell.

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    6. I may be misunderstanding your spreadsheet, but how did you get to Seeking Truth CAC of $30? I think it's much higher per ST sub.

      It makes sense that the business would get the low-hanging fruit first, so CAC goes up and LTV down over time. On the other hand, perhaps word -of-mouth subs increase and they refine their methods, thereby lowering CAC. Hard to say now, and I don't know what the base rates are for this type of business.

      Ultimately, I agree that $8.60/share isn't a screaming buy unless you're convinced about Seeking Truth's growth.

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    7. ST acquisition cost = 40% x LTV = $130/sub
      Maintenance of subsciptions by adding new members = $130/3, $130/2.6, $130/2.23 etc = $43, $53, %58 etc
      Maintenance by retention of existing subs: rule of thumb = 1/5 of initial acquisition cost = $9, $11, $12 etc
      Half and half => $30

      However, I've mistakenly understated the cumulative cash burn for growth so -85 million to 750K subs in exchange for a business that would earn maybe $22MM as a standalone and maybe $30 to $35MM as a segment in an acquirer's business.

      --

      As you say, it's all a bit hazy. Easy, though, to underestimate the audience size, just as it would have been easy to underestimate the reach of, say, the National Enquirer or Zero Hedge.

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    8. If I'm following you, the second line in your spreadsheet is not a raw CAC but rather an annualized number that accounts for the fact that when LTV is 3 years, you only need to replace 1/3 of your subs every year in steady state. But why do you then reduce that number again by multiplying by 1/3 to get annual maintenance advertising spend?

      To use the assumptions you provide above and in your first column, let's assume (i) it costs $130 to get a new ST sub and 1/5 of that ($26) to "retain" an existing sub or reacquire a former sub; (ii) you're trying to calculate steady-state advertising costs at 300,000 ST subs; (iii) LTV is 3 years; and (iv) the replacements for churned off subs are 50% brand new subs and 50% retained/reacquired subs. In that scenario, you'd need to replace 100,000 churned off subs per year. Shouldn't you use raw CACs to calculate that, i.e., wouldn't the cost be 50,000*130 + 50,000*26 = $7.8 million?

      I also agree with you and Chevalier that it's easy to underestimate the market for ST content. To add to the examples, look at how many many people spend money on astrology and fortune telling.

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    9. Oof.. you're quite right: 7.8M, or 32% of revenue. That's a big difference.
      I suppose we'll see how the inputs evolve over time and whether this turns out to be a plausible business model.

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  9. www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/conspiracy-theory-poll-results-.html
    TAM easy to underestimate... 4% of US voters (voters!) think lizard people control our societies, and 7% think Man did not land on the Moon.

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  10. Tentative GAIA Fair Value today. Net Cash $62.5m+ New tech biz stake acquired for retention $10m+ Real Estate: historical cost 2008 $19m, rent $1.9m half space so worth ~$30m today + Video library 7500 titles x~$4k= $30m: TOTAL $8.75 per share. Now remember to add the current subscribers: were 180k Q3 shd be 200k Q4. LTV say $250: thats $45m to $50m so another $3 or $3.3 =$12.06.

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    1. That's fair. If you like this you may like Cambium Learning Grp notwithstanding the uncertainty abt the Common Core curriculum
      http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?t=1&item=VHlwZT0yfFBhcmVudElEPTUyMzY0NzN8Q2hpbGRJRD02NDUwMDI=

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    2. Great! Thanks Maestro, I will have a proper look at this Cambium idea.
      Changing topic, do you sometimes buy deep value/NCAV plays? I quite like CED IM Caltagirone Editore, Italy. Second largest newspaper business in Italy (not such a bad biz out there because fragmented SMEs, still good physical readership). Ebitda positive. No debt, Net cash 1.03, Liquid assets (bloc of shares in Unicredito and Generali):.64 so Total liquid assets 1.67, trades at 0.76, I think it could be taken private by owner operator this year just like his previous discounted holding.

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    3. What do you mean by "fair value"? It looks like you're aiming for a liquidation/run-off value, but I suspect if the business model isn't viable, the film library's book value/production value isn't going to hold up. If you put the business in run-off, you also need to account for the costs of running the business to collect the LTVs you mentioned, which likely also will shorten as new content production is eliminated. They are also going to burn some cash over the next year determining whether the business model works. Long story short, if the business model doesn't work, I don't think the assets + cash will fetch $12/share in a sale.

      On the other hand, if the business model does work, the film library + (growing) sub base are likely worth much more than your numbers to a buyer. How much to pay for that chance is, I guess, in the eye of the beholder.

      For what it's worth, I also second the Cambium recommendation. It's already generating substantial cash flows and there's a good chance it will be sold in a few years when the NOLs are used up. There's also a two-year old VIC writeup on it that I found useful.

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    4. KJP, re GAIA I totally agree with your comments, not a Fair value nor a Liquidation Value estimate; I was just throwing some numbers mixing tangible and less tangible assets around really, but backed on research. May I add bull thesis feeds on CEO's track, skills, personality, guidance and vista. Looks to me he is grooming GAIA for a medium term exit. Not your average Corporate America C-suite guy for sure!

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    5. Looks like it has turned ebitda negative but persistence of the share buybacks has me interested. Grazie, I'll hae a look.
      In the spirit of reciprocity, http://www.investegate.co.uk/dolphin-capital-inv--dci-/rns/half-year-report/201609300700282781L/ is worth a look

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    6. DCI? Well I am already loaded...Light at the end of the tunnel at long last!

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    7. @Chevalier, et al. A fair number of interesting companies in Italy. I prefer Caltagirone parent to Editore just because I think more value will ultimately accrue to the former.

      Have you ever looked at Fincantieri? Spun off from Italian state under some duress, backlog of ~22 bln Euro/5+ years work dwarfs EV, with much of the debt project-specific and some seeming flexibility on the employment side (closing of 1 Brazil yard). They have global leadership in large cruise ships and what I would consider to be moderately attractive position in defense, though shipbuilding is not such a great business. Plans for lower debt and a dividend to be paid in 2017 (I contacted IR and they confirmed this was still the plan, though the recent shopping spree--Varg and STX--makes me wonder). I didn't think it was a "Red" kind of company because the levers of valuation are somewhat obscure; I've been trying to come up with a number that I feel comfortable with, and my insufficient answer at .38 and .52 was "more, probably."

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    8. Are you involved in this, ADL?
      http://conturaenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Contura-Energy-Inc.-Disclosure-File-7.26.16.pdf

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    9. @Red: I was vaguely aware but didn't look at it; my too-shallow take was that valuation was a little rich given prospective headwinds. Instead, I was looking at KIRY (a reluctant pass) and waiting to see where EXXI trades post-emergence. I'm not clever or hard-working enough to do as many deep dives and pass on as many things as I should; at best, a fox trying to be a hedgehog, but maybe likelier a slug.

      That said, I am taking another look at SCOO, which I owned for a little post-emergence and then sold because I was not (and am still not) certain what the actual profitability of the company can be, esp to an acquirer. There's messy post-BK adjustment, and then there's inscrutable (to me!) working capital slosh.

      Am quite keen on Cathedral Energy, which continues to restate its goal of returning to being a dividend paying entity, has perhaps set its debt issues aside, and seems to me to support its claim of modest differentiation by having somewhat higher margins then pure commodity service cos. But again, this is a shallow interpretation and likely, as they say, TMI...

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    10. Hello Red, CED (Caltagirone Editore) is under offer by the owner at EUR 1. Not a bad IRR, especially risk adjusted, but level is a disgrace (NTA 1.72!)Did you have a bite in the end? Cheers mate

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  11. That's quite a heterogenous basket of names :)

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    1. As I mutter to myself every morning!

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  12. Red: Two that may interest you:

    1. Par Pacific Holdings -- This has been written up in several places, so I'll keep it short. I think (i) current prices are at a decent discount to normalized EBITDA/FCF; and (ii) if the other refinery in Hawaii shuts down, any additional throughput at the Hawaii refinery (currently ~78k barrels/day with 94k capacity) would be at very high incremental margins. Assuming Laramie stake is worth ~$150 million, NOLs are just icing on the cake at current prices.

    2. Quorum Information Technologies -- Sells dealer management software on a subscription basis (so high recurring revenue) to car dealerships, primarily in Canada. They have a pathway for continued growth through existing relationships, are already at least cash flow breakeven and overcapitalized, and only trade at a run-rate EV/Recurring Revenue of, at most 3x (depending how you look at what they call "Support Plus" or "add-on" revenue, the current multiple might be more like 2.5x). By year-end 2017, I think EV/Recurring Revenue at current market cap could be around 2.0x. There also appears to be latent price power. In short, the company appears to be creating a lot of incremental value with no cash burn and there is a runway for growth.

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    1. Thank you, KJP, I'll have a look. PARR rings a bell from two or three years ago but I anyway need to review all the refiners and think about LEAPs and such. Quorum is new to me.

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    2. KJP, looks to me that TSO > PARR along every dimension. Might be worth a look.

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    3. Thanks for the heads up. I will take a look at Tesoro.

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  13. TSO looks very cheap. I'm not refining/marketing expert, so I feel like I must be missing something.

    Is there a disconnect between what TSO management has been claiming and the Western Refining acquisition? In the December 2015 Investor Day presentation, management targets $2.5 billion to $3 billion of refining + marketing EBITDA by 2018 using "mid-cycle" numbers (see slide 17). Some of this appears to be from marketing acquisitions (see slide 57), so let's say the organic target was $2.5 billion. In the fall of 2016 when the Western Refining deal was being negotiated, the company had an enterprise value of around $10 billion ($9.6 billion equity and $400 million net debt excluding TLLP debt). The Investor Day valuation of TSO's stake in TLLP is extravagant in my opinion, but if we cut the IDR multiple down to 20x and take the TLLP units at $50 share, you get about $3.5 billion for the TLLP stake. So, the market is valuing TSO's marketing and refining assets at $6.5 billion. If management's estimates for 2018 are anywhere near right, then the market is valuing those assets at about 2.5x "mid-cycle" EBITDA. If you really believed that, why would you use your shares as currency to buy assets for 5.7x post-synergy EBITDA?

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  14. Well, I think if we treat both sides of the equation in the same way, i.e.
    (TSO EV minus value of TLLP) divided by 2018 refining + retail EBITDA; and
    (WNR EV minus value of WRLP) divided by 2018 refining + retail EBITDA
    then TSO is paying ~3.25x pre-synergy EBITDA (and 2.6x post-synergy EBITDA) for ENR -- give or take

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  15. Yes, you're right. It helps to compare apples to apples, unlike what I was doing.

    Do you have a view on the refiners generally?

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  16. What brokerage does one use to pick up Zargon debt. Not supported on interactive :(

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  17. Red,
    I see that options and shorts are not your main passion, but have you tested the notion of buying puts on CAT? At some point the Non-GAAP excuses should run out.
    Also, considering your industrial+far east holdings, it might serve as an indirect hedge.
    Would love to know if you have any thoughts on that.

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    1. Hi and thanks for the suggestion

      CAT short:
      a) be right about the management accounting; and
      b) be right about the capex cycle;and
      c) be right about the earnings multiple and/OR the dividend yield the market's willing to offer; and
      d) be right about the timing

      If right about all 4, make 5x your money
      If wrong about any one of these, lose 1x your money (2x if we count opportunity cost as a real cost).

      Is that it, essentially? I know nothing at all about CAT so I'm going to rely on your guidance on this.

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  18. Your scrutiny would be appreciated, I'd be glad to write more when taking a breather from work.
    Considering the improvement in Macau (e.g., WYNN's latest results) I'm also trying to fit in a reread of your FB idea.
    For now I'll just mention that regarding earning multiple, CAT is X33 its own ftm guidance, which it consistently fails.
    And that puts instead of short would limit the potential loss, reduce opportunity costs, and solve the timing issue.
    So it might boil down to accounting.

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    1. As I know from personal experience, puts do indeed limit your potential loss to 100% of your investment. And they solve any timing issue if the things you expect to happen happen before the put expires.

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    2. anon,

      I've just finished reading two write ups of the CAT short thesis -- one from 2013 and another posted to seeking alpha two days ago. I've also looked at a few years of filings and I now more or less understand the broad outline of the short case. No need, in other words, for you to spend precious time reproducing it for me here if your view accords with those.

      It looks like a fine idea. Thanks again for the tip.

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    3. Thanks for exempting me :) Still trying to catch up with my reading on FB. Any thoughts about the idle land investigation? It should have lasted 30 days, from Dec 21th.
      The surcharge is not significant, but the disparity between the story told by the company and the claims of the authorities could be less negligible, in terms of political implications - is CCM falling out of favour with the party? and how could that effect the business?

      grateful as always. glad to finally able to give back an idea.

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    4. The authorities want everything built at the same time for obvious reasons. The company says its plot has structural problems. These are not inconsistent positions and are easily resolved via inspection. The real issue that I have about that land is that the company should by now have sold a part interest in the project to a construction company. It is discouraging that it hasn't. Hengqin Island itself is doing well, however.

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    5. re: politics
      CCM is connected to Macanese -- not Chinese - politics. A certain number and category of projects were reserved for Macanese businesses and his standing in Macau no doubt helped the company be shortlisted -- and perhaps selected -- for these projects by the Government of Macau. Beyond and after that, however, one would expect that the relationships/understandings/frameworks that matter are institutional rather than personal -- i.e. between the GOM, the Government of Zhuhai and the Central Government.

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  19. SNC - Ever looked at this speciality insurer? Combines a insurance brokerage type of operation that generates 70% of earnings that are growing double digits, with a quasi auto insurer that generates the other 30?%. The former carries little to no liability risk and has a 25+ year track record of profitability and is essentially a 5% toll collection on the insurance premiums generated. The latter has a combined ratio of 85%, one of the best in the industry, and is a short tail, low vol operation that was profitable even during 2008 crisis. I reckon the former can get 18-20x PE and the latter atleast 15x. Together with the insurance float, the fair value would come to 2.5x the current market cap. Little debt, pays a dividend (2%) and is doing buybacks (pending 4% of mcap). A-rated insurer that listed in 2014 at $11.98 vs. $13.54 current price. Earnings up 70% since listing.

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    1. I hadn't heard of it until you mentioned it. It looks interesting for sure. Thanks for mentioning it to me.

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  20. Hi Red,

    Just came across your blog a couple days ago and interested in learning more about the Future Bright story.

    The company seems to have reported much better initial 2016 results when compared to 2015. Am I reading into this correctly or are there special circumstances that I'm not yet seeing here as I continue my DD.

    If 2017 brings a net profit, it seems likely that the stock could rerate quickly, although I really have no experience with the Hong Kong market yet.

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  21. Hi Aurelien. Thanks for reading.

    Sccaffolding for valuation is here:
    http://quinzedix.blogspot.com/2016/01/2015.html
    I'd start with the 2nd column, "low case", and go through each line item.

    I'd caution against thinking of this as a simple proxy to GGR and/or as a swing trade. Instead, I'd fix a point on the horizon, estimate the FCF, use 30% of FCF as a proxy for the dividend, discount it back, and see if that works for you.

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    1. Thanks. Will take a look. And what exactly is GGR?

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    2. GGR = "gross gaming revenue"
      http://www.dicj.gov.mo/web/en/information/DadosEstat_mensal/

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  22. Red, how do you value DCI now? NAV seems 30p. Is the next catalyst the selling of other 2 core holdings?

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  23. Sorry to say that I'm not sure I understand the question
    Have you read this?
    http://www.investegate.co.uk/dolphin-capital-inv--dci-/rns/posting-of-circular-and-notice-of-egm/201612020700087594Q/

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    1. Yes, I read. I think core asset will be easier to sell and cut debt. Given BTEM is selling, I use mid point 17p as projected target in 3 years, pps <7p maybe a good entry. The bigger issue for me is the ability to sell all of the assets even taking a 50% haircut! Do you expect such large discount during analysis?

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    2. Ok thanks for clarifying. I don't think 50% is a reasonable haircut. Maybe 20% is fair all things considered.

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    3. 32% discount for pearl island might suggests that the likely range for shareholders is nearer the bottom end of the 12-22p range, that's if they can even sell them all.

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  24. Have a look at ARL AU (Ardea resources). Cobalt/Nickel/Zinc/Gold resource. US$30m market cap with insitu value of US$100 bn. Management owns a decent chunk and Cobalt is a key bottleneck for Electric vehicle batteries (demand obviously expected to soar, but supply is super concentrated with 70% coming from a tiny African country, Democratic republic of Congo, which is anything but democratic and basically bankrupt). Supply takes time to come and if this major supply gets disrupted, Cobalt prices will go parabolic (already up 56% YTD). There is already a deficit in Cobalt supply vs demand, and hedge funds have cornered 17% of physical cobalt supplies. Very cheap, net cash company. Resource is located in Australia within the super rich mineral belt of Kalgoorlie.

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  25. raging capital just bought 500k more shares of RTK.

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  26. Red - You said you will write a piece on Flybe, eagerly waiting....

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  27. Hey Red,

    I was wondering if you have ever looked at 1538.HK - Zhong Ao Home Group. Seems market is capitalizing O2O losses or believes ~5x forward core EPS is appropriate vs teens for larger peers. Seen sell side reports placing a 30% discount on it vs peers for "short listing period" or size reasons- both should be resolved in a few years as they roll up smaller players at 6x eps. VIC has a solid writeup. Kinda reminds me of the asset-EBITDA conversion play at Haichang- sell side drives the stock and creates a somewhat predictable PT ramp...

    Hope all is well.

    RubyCap

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    1. Hi RubyCap. I'm well thanks. I've looked at Zhong Ao and decided that it's not right for me at this time. Here's a link to an overview of the theme/sector that I read at the time that I was thinking about it

      https://www.dropbox.com/s/zk9jvz0k8p3csiu/Property%20Management%20Services%20-%20Primer%20June%202016.pdf?dl=0



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    2. Appreciate the link. Also wanted to thank you for the FMC idea last year. A clean double since then. It and Olin have really carried things for me. One of these days (years?) I'll be able to reciprocate with an idea!

      Cheers,

      Rubycap

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    3. You've already been very kind in sharing ideas with me & I appreciate it

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  28. Hi Red,

    Has been any news for CVR Partners today? Or just the market follow your movements... :)

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  29. Well it's 3 weeks or so away from reporting and dividend reinstatement so I suppose it's not out of the question that it fills in the gap between now and then. My firm belief is that total return from here is likely in the 4x range between now and 2020 so I'd encourage anyone not otherwise involved in nitrogen (and not constitutionally averse to cyclical stocks) will give this one a fair look between now and the end of the month.

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    1. Total sense. I'm anxious waiting for LSB results. Had to be the time for USA fertilizers.
      Thanks a lot.

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  30. Hi Red, are you following BXE?

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    1. I followed it for a brief period last year but no longer. I own a couple of fertilizer stocks that will behave as though O&G derivatives over the next couple of years so BXE's of no real use to me at this point.

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  31. right, I should have figured it out.

    BTW, this is from today, OCI's trading update:

    Market Environment
    Selling prices for urea have been volatile, with signs of recovery in the beginning of the year, but declining in March due to a delay in the start of the application season in both the US and Europe, lower import demand from India and reconciliation of additional capacity. We believe current low prices are not sustainable, and below break-even costs of marginal producers in China and elsewhere.
    The medium-term outlook for the supply demand balance continues to look positive. We expect global urea capacity additions slowing to below trend demand growth over at least the next four years, even before taking into account likely further net capacity closures in China. Urea exports from China are expected to be structurally lower than the levels in 2016 going forward, with potential rebounds in exports capped by environmental curtailments and increased focus on profitability of the industry.
    Nitrate prices have also declined due to delayed demand in Europe, but have been more resilient than urea. Ammonia prices reached significantly higher levels during the first quarter compared to the previous quarter, and remained firm into the beginning of the second quarter of 2017, reflecting tighter global supply.
    Methanol prices have improved steadily since reaching a trough in the first quarter of 2016. In the second quarter of 2017, prices have corrected somewhat, largely due to the return of supply from various methanol plants following turnarounds, and reduced operating rates at some Methanol-to-Olefins (MTO) facilities in China. Nevertheless, current price levels are higher than those achieved in 2016 and continue to generate healthy returns for our operations. Global demand is expected to remain underpinned by the MTO sector, which is benefiting from improved economics and additional MTO capacity starting up.

    Thanks for the blog,
    L.

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  32. Hey red, any idea what's going on at CVR Partners? Price went to 3.4 USD today and seems very appealing unless I'm missing something. Is the base value you assigned to UAN including dividends?

    Finally, Flybe at 34 GBp seems very cheap. Someone mentioned it dropped out of an AIM index... and the non-numerate masses seem to price in losses for quite some time to come.

    Care to speculate?

    Thanks a lot for this blog. It's truly inspirational.

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